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GASTROENTEROLOGY 1998;115:929-936
,
* Clinique des Maladies du Foie and INSERM Unité 49, Etablissement Français des Greffes,
§ Anatomie Pathologique B,
Département
de Santé Publique, ¶ Laboratoire de
Génétique Moléculaire; Hôpital Universitaire
Pontchaillou, Rennes, France; and # Department of
Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
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Abstract |
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Background & Aims: The diagnosis of
hemochromatosis is now possible for C282Y homozygous patients using
noninvasive molecular genetic tests. The aim of this study was to
define noninvasive factors predictive of severe fibrosis (bridging
fibrosis or cirrhosis) to avoid unnecessary liver biopsies in such
patients. Methods: Clinical and biological data were
recorded at the time of diagnosis in 197 French C282Y homozygous patients, 52 (26%) of whom had severe fibrosis. Variables
significantly linked to severe fibrosis using univariate analysis were
entered into a multivariate stepwise analysis. These variables were
combined to obtain a simple index allowing for prediction of severe
fibrosis. Results: Serum ferritin, hepatomegaly, and
serum aspartate aminotransferase were selected using multivariate
analysis. Their combination applied to the 96 patients with ferritin
level of
1000 µg/L, normal aspartate aminotransferase values, and
absence of hepatomegaly showed that no severe fibrosis was encountered in this subgroup of patients. The results were validated in 113 C282Y
homozygous patients in Canada with a good reproducibility of negative
prediction but a poor reproducibility of the positive prediction of
severe fibrosis. Conclusions: In C282Y homozygous
patients, the diagnosis of severe fibrosis relies on liver biopsy, but
absence of severe fibrosis can be accurately predicted in most patients
on the basis of simple clinical and biochemical variables.
Genetic hemochromatosis is an autosomal recessive
disorder characterized by an increased intestinal absorption of iron,
leading to early abnormalities in serum iron test results (especially elevated transferrin saturation) and late clinical
symptoms.1 When diagnosed before the onset of cirrhosis and
treated adequately, hemochromatosis does not reduce life
expectancy.2,3 On the contrary, when hemochromatosis is
detected after cirrhosis has developed, there is a high risk of
hepatocellular carcinoma2-4 that persists even in
iron-depleted patients.5 Patients with cirrhosis have a 5.5 relative risk of death compared with noncirrhotic patients.6
Liver biopsy has previously been an important step in the diagnosis of
hemochromatosis7 because (1) it shows liver iron overload
and assesses the hepatocytic type of iron deposition with typical
periportal and perilobular distribution8; (2) it allows for
biochemical determination of hepatic iron concentration (HIC), and a
hepatic iron index (HIC/age ratio) >1.9 is a helpful means of
establishing a diagnosis of homozygous hemochromatosis9,10;
and (3) it provides assessment of the degree of fibrosis, which is of
major prognostic significance.
The discovery of the hemochromatosis gene will lead to new diagnostic
strategies. Feder et al.11 have identified a C282Y mutation
(change in cysteine to tyrosine at position 282) on a gene initially
called HLA-H and now HFE,12 which encodes a major histocompatibility complex class I-like molecule. The HFE C282Y mutation is strongly associated with hemochromatosis because
60%-100% of patients with typical phenotypic hemochromatosis
worldwide are homozygous for this mutation.11,13-19 The
determination of the C282Y status represents a simple and efficient
means of diagnosing hemochromatosis. Therefore, in the case of a
homozygous C282Y mutation patient, liver biopsy is no longer indicated
for the diagnosis, and the rationale for performing liver biopsy is now restricted to the need for assessment of fibrosis. Although
controversial, there is a general agreement to perform a liver biopsy
in most hemochromatosis patients, except for young (<30 years)
asymptomatic patients identified by family studies or by screening with
a genetic test, because it is unlikely that those individuals will have cirrhosis or a significant increase in fibrosis.7 However, until now, no data were available that could permit to select, among
homozygous hemochromatotic patients, those at low risk of cirrhosis for
whom liver biopsy is unnecessary. Liver biopsy is an invasive
procedure, relatively safe, but still associated with a significant
morbidity and a mortality rate estimated between 0.015% and
0.03%.20,21
The aim of the present study was to identify noninvasive variables that
could predict or exclude severe fibrosis to avoid an unnecessary liver
biopsy in such patients.
Patients
![]()
Introduction
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Methods
Results
Discussion
References
![]()
Patients and Methods
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Methods
Results
Discussion
References
Methods
The following data were recorded at the time of diagnosis: age, gender, occurrence of hepatomegaly (assessed either clinically or by ultrasonography), prothrombin index, serum iron (N
25 µmol/L),
transferrin saturation (N
0.45), serum ferritin (measured by an
immunoradiometric assay using Ferritin Magic; Ciba Corning SA, Le
Vésinet, France; N
400 µg/L), serum aspartate
aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and
-glutamyltranspeptidase expressed as multiple of upper limit of
normal value (ULN). In addition, history of alcohol consumption was
carefully recorded, and patients were considered chronic excessive
drinkers if they had drunk more than 80 g/day of alcohol for men and 60 g/day of alcohol for women during more than 5 years and/or in
case of clinical, biological, or histological evidence of chronic
alcoholism.
36 µmol/g of dry liver weight).
Genetic Studies
Analysis of the C282Y mutation was performed by an amplification of exon 4 before restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis as previously described.17Statistical Analysis
Results were expressed as median (25th-75th percentile). Values were considered significant with P < 0.05. Univariate analysis was performed using an analysis of variance for quantitative variables with normal distribution, the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test for quantitative variables with nonnormal distribution, and
2 test for qualitative data. Three models were assessed
to predict severe fibrosis. Two of them, in which variables
significantly associated with severe fibrosis were entered in
univariate analysis, relied on classical multivariate analysis tools
(Statistical Package for Social Sciences; SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL). The
first model was elaborated using stepwise logistic regression (backward
and forward procedures, Wald criteria). The second model was
constructed using discriminant analysis with a stepwise procedure for
selection of variables. The third model attempted to be a simplified
model for clinical use. This simplified clinical model was based on a
decision tree combining variables selected in multivariate analysis. Optimization of thresholds was based on receiver operating
characteristics (ROC) curve.
Validation of the Predictive Models
Finally, these three models were validated in a second population of 113 homozygous C282Y Canadian patients. Serum ferritin was measured using a commercial radioimmunoassay (Quantimmune ferritin IRMA; Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA; upper limit of normal value, 350 µg/L).| |
Results |
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Patients
Main clinical and biological data of the 197 French C282Y patients are given in Table 1. Among these, 98 (50%) had no fibrosis, 47 (24%) had moderate (stage 1 or 2) fibrosis, and 52 (26%) had severe (stage 3 or 4) fibrosis. Patients were identified by family screening in 51 cases (26%), by asymptomatic increase in serum iron test values (serum iron, transferrin saturation, and/or serum ferritin) in 79 other cases (40%), and by clinical symptoms suggestive of hepatic disease and/or iron overload in the 67 remaining cases (34%). The Canadian population consisted of 87 men and 26 women with a median age of 50 years (25th percentile, 40 years; 75th percentile, 62 years; range, 16-74 years). Twenty-eight of 113 patients (25%) had severe fibrosis, and 4 were alcoholics (4%).
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Univariate Analysis
Mode of diagnosis (proband or family screening), age at diagnosis, hepatomegaly, chronic alcoholism, serum AST, ALT, and
-glutamyltranspeptidase levels, transferrin saturation, serum
ferritin level, HIC, and HIC/age ratio were significantly associated
with severe fibrosis (Table 1). There was a higher frequency of
patients detected through familial screening when there was no severe
fibrosis (43/145, 30%) compared with patients with severe fibrosis
(8/52, 15%). There was a higher percentage of men in patients with
severe fibrosis (40/52, 77%) than in patients without severe fibrosis
(92/145, 63%), which was close to significant P values (0.07).
There was a strong link between alcoholism and severe fibrosis. The
frequency of alcoholism was 12 of 145 (8%) in patients without severe
fibrosis vs. 28 of 52 (54%) in patients with severe fibrosis.
Hepatomegaly was also highly suggestive of severe fibrosis. The
frequency of hepatomegaly was 12 of 145 (8%) patients without severe
fibrosis vs. 38 of 52 (73%) patients with severe fibrosis. The
repartition of the different variables was studied to separate patients
with and without severe fibrosis (Figure
1). No patient among the 39 individuals
under the age of 35 years had severe fibrosis. The frequency of severe
fibrosis was very low in patients with transferrin saturation
0.65
(1/25, 4%), serum ferritin
1500 µg/L (4/122, 3%), or serum
ferritin
1000 µg/L (1/105, 1%). The frequency of severe fibrosis
was high in patients with elevated AST values (21/26, 81%) compared
with 31 of 171 patients (18%) with normal AST values
(
2, P < 10
4). Although HIC
and HIC/age were significantly correlated to severe fibrosis, there was
a considerable overlap between groups: the frequency of severe fibrosis
was only 36 of 56 (64%) in the case of HIC values >400 µmol/g and
was 20 of 27 (74%) for HIC values >500 µmol/g.
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Multivariate Analysis
Variables significantly linked to severe fibrosis in univariate analysis were entered into multivariate analysis. Using the logistic regression model, three independent variables were used to predict severe fibrosis: AST, serum ferritin, and presence of hepatomegaly (parameters estimation is given on Table 2). The mode of diagnosis was not selected as an independent predictive variable. With a threshold of 0.5 for Y predicted (which represents the probability of having severe fibrosis; patients were predicted "severe fibrosis" if Y predicted >0.50 and "no severe fibrosis" if Y predicted <0.50), 183 of 197 patients were correctly predicted by logistic regression analysis (diagnostic accuracy, 0.93) showing 140 of 145 patients without severe fibrosis and 43 of 52 patients with severe fibrosis (sensitivity, 0.83; specificity, 0.97; positive predictive value, 0.90; negative predictive value, 0.94). Using the discriminant analysis model, four independent variables were used to separate patients with and without severe fibrosis: AST, serum ferritin, hepatomegaly, and alcoholism; 186 of 197 patients were correctly classified by discriminant analysis (diagnostic accuracy, 0.94) showing 140 of 145 patients without severe fibrosis and 46 of 52 patients with severe fibrosis (sensitivity, 0.89; specificity, 0.97; positive predictive value, 0.90; negative predictive value, 0.96). When applying the logistic regression analysis separately for the 146 probands and the 51 relatives diagnosed through family screening, serum ferritin was selected in both groups and seemed to be the key variable for prediction. The other independent variables were: AST, hepatomegaly, and transferrin saturation for the proband group and age for the relative group.
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Clinical Predictive Model of Severe Fibrosis
Because the mathematical formulation of the two models based on multivariate analysis makes their clinical use difficult, the variables selected by multivariate analysis (serum AST, serum ferritin, and hepatomegaly) were then combined to get a simple clinical predictive model of severe fibrosis. Figure 2 shows the correlation between serum ferritin and AST values. Figure 3 gives the prevalence of severe fibrosis according to the different distributions of the three variables on a decision tree. ROC curves using different AST thresholds between 0.8 and 1.4 ULN were constructed to determine the best threshold for ferritin. Thresholds between 1690 µg/L and 1000 µg/L gave the best compromise in terms of sensitivity and specificity for prediction of severe fibrosis. A threshold of 1000 µg/L was chosen to maximize the negative prediction of severe fibrosis. Figure 3 shows that serum ferritin was the most powerful variable for negative prediction of severe fibrosis. Only 1 of 105 patients (1%) with serum ferritin
1000 µmol/L had severe fibrosis vs. 51 of 92 patients (55%) with
serum ferritin >1000 µg/L. When patients were excluded with
hepatomegaly, ferritin >1000 µg/L, or an elevated AST, none of the
94 remaining patients had severe fibrosis. In contrast, the positive
prediction of severe fibrosis was more difficult; when selecting
patients with either serum ferritin >1000 µg/L, hepatomegaly, or
elevated serum AST, the prevalence of severe fibrosis was only 52 of
103 (50%). When considering patients with serum ferritin >1000 µg,
it seemed that the prevalence of severe fibrosis was much higher in
case of hepatomegaly (37 of 41 [90%] vs. 14 of 51 [27%]) or
elevated serum AST (21 of 24 [87%] vs. 30 of 68 [44%]). For a
maximum security in positive prediction of severe fibrosis, when
selecting patients with serum ferritin >1000 µg/L, hepatomegaly,
and elevated AST values, 17 of 18 patients (94%) had severe fibrosis.
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Validation of the Predictive Models
These three different models were applied to the Canadian population. Using the multiple logistic regression model, 95 of 113 patients were correctly classified (diagnostic accuracy, 0.84) showing 71 of 75 patients with a negative prediction of severe fibrosis and 24 of 38 patients with a positive prediction of severe fibrosis (sensitivity, 0.86; specificity, 0.84; positive predictive value, 0.63; negative predictive value, 0.95). Using the discriminant model, 93 of 113 patients were correctly classified (diagnostic accuracy, 0.82) showing 82 of 99 patients with a negative prediction of severe fibrosis and 11 of 14 with a positive prediction of cirrhosis (sensitivity, 0.32; specificity, 0.96; positive predictive value, 0.79; negative predictive value, 0.83). Using the simplified clinical model, 2 of 60 patients (3%) with serum ferritin
1000 µg/L had severe fibrosis vs. 26 of
53 patients (49%) with serum ferritin >1000 µg/L. No severe
fibrosis was encountered for patients with serum ferritin
1000
µg/L, normal AST values, and absence of hepatomegaly; 14 of 18 (78%)
patients with serum ferritin >1000 µg/L, elevated AST values, and
hepatomegaly had severe fibrosis. Details of results are given in
Figure 4.
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Discussion |
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This study based on multivariate analysis of variables significantly
linked to severe fibrosis in C282Y homozygous patients showed that
absence of severe fibrosis can be accurately predicted using simple
clinical and biochemical variables. The most significant variable for
negative prediction was serum ferritin, and the prevalence of severe
fibrosis was extremely low when serum ferritin was
1000 µg/L
(1%-3%). Therefore, on the basis of these results, it is not
advisable to perform liver biopsy in this subgroup of patients, which
represented about half of the total population and three-fourths of
nonfibrotic patients. If patients with hepatomegaly and elevated AST
values were excluded, there were no patients with severe fibrosis in
both the French and the Canadian population. By contrast, the positive
prediction of severe fibrosis was more difficult. Thus, the positive
diagnosis of fibrosis still relies on liver biopsy.
1000 µg/L, and no patient had severe fibrosis when
serum ferritin was
1000 µg/L in the absence of hepatomegaly or
increase in serum AST. This logical formulation was constructed to
avoid false-negative prediction of cirrhosis and would have avoided
liver biopsy in 70% of nonfibrotic patients. The choice of a higher
serum ferritin threshold of 1500 µg/L would have resulted only in a
slight decrease in negative prediction and would have avoided liver
biopsy in a larger number of patients but, however, can result in
misclassification of patients in the absence of standardized ferritin
measurement. The use of multiple logistic regression is advisable for
negative prediction if possible because, with an excellent negative
prediction, it would have avoided liver biopsy in a larger number of
nonfibrotic patients (140 of 145 [97%] in the French population and
71 of 85 [84%] in the Canadian population). Because the mode of
diagnosis was not selected as an independent variable, it is not useful to establish different models for probands and patients selected through familial screening.
1000 µg/L. We found that the
majority of patients with HIC >500 µmol/g had severe fibrosis,
which is in accordance with previous studies,10,28 but,
clearly, a lot of patients with HIC lower than 500 µmol/g had severe
fibrosis even in the absence of alcoholism. We were not able to confirm
the findings of Basset et al.,10 who separated nonalcoholic
patients with and without cirrhosis using an HIC threshold of 400 µmol/g. The absence of severe fibrosis in a significant proportion of
patients despite massive hepatic iron overload indicates that iron
itself is poorly fibrogenic and that the influence of cofactors is
probably important29 and explains the poor performance of
positive prediction of severe fibrosis that we encountered.
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Footnotes |
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Received December 23, 1997. Accepted June 23, 1998.
Address requests for reprints to: Dominique Guyader, M.D.,
Clinique des Maladies du Foie, CHU Pontchaillou. Rue H. Le Guilloux, 35033 Rennes, France. e-mail: Dominique.Guyader@univ-rennes1.fr; fax:
(33) 299-28-41-12.
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Abbreviations |
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Abbreviations used in this paper: HIC, hepatic iron concentration. ROC, receiver operating characteristics. ULN, upper limit of normal value.
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GASTROENTEROLOGY 1998;115:929-936
© 1998 by The American Gastroenterological Association
0016-5085/98/$3.00
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